Typhoon Ursula Projected Path and Tracking 2019: To Affect Eastern Visayas Philippines

Here is the update from PAGASA of the 2019 Typhoon Ursula as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Update:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #14
FOR: TYPHOON “#UrsulaPH” (PHANFONE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 AM, 25 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today)

“URSULA” IS NOW OVER THE VISAYAN SEA AND IS HEADING TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN ILOILO AREA.

• The eyewall of Typhoon “URSULA” is bringing very destructive winds and intense rainfall over extreme northern Cebu and southern Masbate. The northern portion of Panay Island and Romblon will be affected by the eyewall in the coming hours. The passage of the eye in some of the aforementioned areas will bring calm conditions. However, as soon as the eye moves out of the area, violent conditions will resume as the trailing eyewall passes.
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
• Until tonight: Occasional to frequent heavy with intermittent intense rains over northern Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Masbate, northern and central Cebu, northern Negros Provinces, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, and Mindoro Provinces. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Bicol Region, rest of Visayas, CALABARZON, Aurora and the northern portion of mainland Palawan.
• Residents in these areas are advised to take appropriate measures to reduce the potential impact of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas identified to be highly to very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Onset of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
• Moderate to strong winds to begin affecting the Mindoro Provinces this early morning; northern portion of Palawan and the rest of CALABARZON this morning; Metro Manila, Bulacan and Bataan between this morning and afternoon.
• Damaging gale to storm-force winds to begin affecting Marinduque, southern portion of Bondoc Peninsula, and most of Western Visayas this early morning; Mindoro Provinces, Calamian Islands, and Cuyo Islands this morning.
• Destructive typhoon-force winds to begin affecting Capiz, Aklan, northern Iloilo, northern Antique and Romblon this early morning; southern Mindoro Provinces this morning.
Other Hazards and Warning Information:
• Rough sea conditions will prevail over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, as well the seaboards of Aurora, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Sea travel remains risky over these areas
• Storm surge of up to 2.0 meters may affect the several coastal areas of northwestern Leyte, extreme northern Cebu, Masbate, Aklan, Capiz, northern Antique, northeastern Iloilo, Romblon, Marinduque, and Mindoro Provinces, Calamian Islands and Cuyo Islands.
• Previous landfalls: Salcedo, Eastern Samar (4:45 PM); Tacloban City, Leyte (7:30 PM); Cabucgayan, Biliran (9:15 PM).

Location of eye/center At 1:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “URSULA” was located based on available data including Iloilo, Mactan, and Bohol Doppler Radars at 90 km South Southeast of Masbate City, Masbate or 115 km East of Roxas City, Capiz (11.6°N, 123.8°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 130 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 160 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwest at 25 km/h.

Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tonight): 50 km North Northwest of Coron, Palawan (12.4°N, 120.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday evening):365 km West Southwest of Iba, Zambales (13.6°N, 117.1°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday evening): 340 km North Northeast of Pagasa Island, Palawan (13.8°N, 115.4°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday evening):385 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.0°N, 112.3°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
Masbate including Ticao Island, Romblon, southern Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao), and southern Occidental Mindoro (Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay), Biliran, northwestern Leyte (Calubian, San Isidro, Tabango, Villaba, Matag-ob, Palompon, Isabel, Merida, Ormoc City, Kananga, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, Tunga, Jaro), extreme Northern Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands (Daanbantayan, Medellin, Bogo City, Tabogon, San Remigio, Borbon, Tabuelan, Bantayan, Sta. Fe, Madridejos, San Francisco, Poro, Tudela, Pilar), Capiz, Aklan, northern Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-an), and northern Iloilo (Calinog, Bingawan, Passi City, San Enrique, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Ajuy, Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)

TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Southern portion of Quezon (Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco), Marinduque, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, Calamian and Cuyo Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, the rest of Leyte, the rest of Northern Cebu (Tuburan, Sogod, Catmon, Carmen, Asturias), Central Cebu (Danao City, Balamban, Compostela, Liloan, Consolacion, Mandaue City, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, Cordova, Talisay, Minglanilla, Naga City, San Fernando, Carcar City, Aloguinsan, Pinamungahan, Toledo City), the rest of Iloilo, the rest of Antique, Guimaras, and northern Negros Occidental (Valladolid, Pulupandan, Bago City, Murcia, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto, Bacolod City, Talisay, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava)

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and northern mainland Palawan (Linapacan, El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, Dumaran, San Vicente, Roxas), Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, the rest of Cebu, the rest of Negros Occidental, and Negros Oriental Dinagat Islands and northern Surigao del Norte (San Francisco, Surigao City, Sison, Tagana-an)

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today.

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Previous updates are found below:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: TYPHOON “#UrsulaPH” (PHANFONE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 PM, 24 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)

“URSULA” INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON AS IT ENDANGERS EASTERN VISAYAS.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook
• Between today and tomorrow noon: Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Eastern Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, northern and central Cebu, northern Negros Provinces, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras and Romblon. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over the rest of Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Visayas and Surigao del Norte.
• Between tomorrow noon and late evening: Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Cuyo Islands, Negros Provinces, Iloilo, Guimaras, Aurora, and the rest of CALABARZON.
• Residents in these areas are advised to take appropriate measures to reduce the potential impact of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas identified to be highly to very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Tropical Cyclone Winds:
• Moderate to strong winds to begin affecting Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas today; Bicol Region and portions of Central Visayas this afternoon or tonight; CALABARZON, and portions of MIMAROPA and Western Visayas tomorrow morning; Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Bataan tomorrow morning or afternoon. Medium to high-risk structures may experience light damage.
• Damaging gale to storm-force winds to begin affecting areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 in Southern Leyte this afternoon; in Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz and portions of Antique, Iloilo, and northern Cebu tonight; in Marinduque, southern portion of Quezon, portions of Mindoro Provinces tomorrow morning. This may bring light to moderate damage to high-risk structures and at most light damage to medium-risk structures.
• Destructive typhoon force winds to begin affecting areas under TCWS #3 this afternoon. High-risk structures may experience heavy damage.
Other Hazards and Warning Information:
• “URSULA” is forecast make to landfall over Borongan-Guiuan area between 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM today.
• Storm Surge of up to 2.0 meters may affect the several coastal areas of Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, and Leyte.
• Rough sea conditions will prevail starting today over the eastern seaboards of the country; this afternoon or tonight over the inland waters of Southern Luzon and Visayas; tomorrow afternoon over the western seaboards of Southern Luzon. Sea travel is risky over these areas.

Location of eye/center: At 1:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “URSULA” was located based on all available data including Guiuan Doppler Radar at 95 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N, 126.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 120 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 150 km/h.
Movement: Moving West at 20 km/h.

Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 65 km Southwest of Romblon, Romblon (12.2°N, 121.8°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday morning):315 km West Northwest of Coron, Palawan (13.4°N, 117.7°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday morning): 490 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.1°N, 115.8°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday morning):700 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.5°N, 113.8°E)
• 120 Hour (Sunday morning):955 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 111.1°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #3(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, and Camotes Islands

TCWS #2(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Southern portion of Quezon (Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco), Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Romblon, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands
Extreme northern Cebu including Bantayan (Bantayan, Madridejos, Santa Fe, Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Bogo City, Tabogon, Tabuelan, Borbon, San Francisco, Poro, Tudela, Pilar), northeastern Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad, San Dionisio, Sara, Concepcion, Lemery, Ajuy), northern Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao), Capiz, Aklan, Southern Leyte and extreme Northern Negros Occidental (Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias, Manapla, Cadiz, Sagay, Escalante, Toboso)
Dinagat Islands

TCWS #1(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, northern Palawan (Linapacan, El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, Dumaran, San Vicente, Roxas), Calamian Islands, and Cuyo Islands
The rest of northern Cebu (Carmen, Asturias, Tuburan, Catmon, Sogod), Central Cebu (Aloguinsan, Carcar City, Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Naga City, Toledo City, Minglanilla, Balamban, Talisay City, Cebu City, Cordova, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao City), northeastern Bohol (Inabanga, Danao, Dagohoy, Pilar, Guindulman, Anda, Candijay, Alicia, Buenavista, Jetafe, Talibon, Trinidad, Bien Unido, San Miguel, Ubay, Mabini, Pres. Carlos P. Garcia), the rest of Antique, the rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, northern Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, Bago City, Calatrava, La Carlota City, La Castellana, Moises Padilla, Binalbagan, Hinigaran, Isabela, Murcia, Pontevedra, Pulupandan, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City, San Enrique, Silay City, Talisay City, Valladolid), and northern Negros Orienta (Canlaon City, Guihulngan City, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Vallehermoso)
Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Below this line were previous updates:

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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “#UrsulaPH” (PHANFONE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 24 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)

“#UrsulaPH” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

Heavy Rainfall Outlook
• Between today and tomorrow noon: Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Eastern Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, northern and central Cebu, northern Negros Provinces, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras and Romblon. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over the rest of Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Visayas and Surigao del Norte.
• Between tomorrow noon and late evening: Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Cuyo Islands, Negros Provinces, Iloilo, Guimaras, Aurora, and the rest of CALABARZON.
• Residents in these areas are advised to take appropriate measures to reduce the potential impact of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas identified to be highly to very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Tropical Cyclone Winds:
• Moderate to strong winds to begin affecting Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas this morning or noon; Bicol Region and portions of Central Visayas this afternoon or tonight; CALABARZON, and portions of MIMAROPA and Western Visayas tomorrow morning; Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Bataan tomorrow morning or afternoon. Medium to high-risk structures may experience light damage.
• Damaging gale to storm-force winds to begin affecting areas under TCWS#2 in Eastern Visayas this afternoon; in Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, and portions of Capiz, Iloilo, and northern Cebu tonight. This may bring light to moderate damage to high-risk structures and at most light damage to medium-risk structures.
Other Hazards and Warning Information:
• “URSULA” is forecast make to landfall over Eastern Samar this afternoon or evening. The highest Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) that can be raised at the moment is TCWS #2. However, potential intensification into a Typhoon prior to landfall or while crossing the inland seas of the country is not yet ruled out. As such, there remains a possibility of hoisting TCWS #3.
• Suspension of maritime activities may be experienced in areas where TCWS are in effect.
• Rough sea conditions will prevail starting today over the eastern seaboards of the country; this afternoon or tonight over the inland waters of Southern Luzon and Visayas; tomorrow afternoon over the western seaboards of Southern Luzon. Sea travel is risky over these areas.

Location of eye/center At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “URSULA” was estimated based on all available data including Guiuan Doppler Radar at 315 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.8°N, 128.6°E).

Strength Maximum sustained winds of up to 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement Moving West Northwest at 30 km/h.

Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 30 km South of Masbate City, Masbate (12.1°N, 123.6°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday morning): 210 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan (13.4°N, 118.9°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday morning): 395 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.2°N, 116.7°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday morning): 560 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.6°N, 115.1°E)
• 120 Hour (Sunday morning): 860 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.0°N, 112.3°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands

Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, extreme northern Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands (Bantayan, Madridejos, Santa Fe, Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Bogo City, Tabogon, Tabuelan, Borbon, San Francisco, Poro, Tudela, Pilar), northeastern Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad, San Dionisio, Sara, Concepcion), and northeastern Capiz (Pilar, President Roxas, Pontevedra, Panay)

TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Albay, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, and Cuyo Islands

Southern Leyte, the rest of northern Cebu (Carmen, Asturias, Tuburan, Catmon, Sogod), Central Cebu (Aloguinsan, Carcar City, Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Naga City, Toledo City, Minglanilla, Balamban, Talisay City, Cebu City, Cordova, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao City), northeastern Bohol (Inabanga, Danao, Dagohoy, Pilar, Guindulman, Anda, Candijay, Alicia, Buenavista, Jetafe, Talibon, Trinidad, Bien Unido, San Miguel, Ubay, Mabini, Pres. Carlos P. Garcia), Aklan, Antique, the rest of Capiz, the rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, northern Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, Bago City, Cadiz City, Calatrava, Enrique B. Magalona, Escalante City, La Carlota City, La Castellana, Manapla, Moises Padilla, Binalbagan, Hinigaran, Isabela, Murcia, Pontevedra, Pulupandan, Sagay City, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City, San Enrique, Silay City, Talisay City, Toboso, Valladolid, Victorias City), and northern Negros Oriental (Canlaon City, Guihulngan City, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Vallehermoso)

Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.