Solar Storm December 2014 Warning: Can We Predict Solar Flares?

People are going gaga about the solar storm December 2014 warning that have been circulating online. This supposedly huge solar flare will cause 3 days of darkness, yes a 3-day blackout, this December. But can we predict when solar flare hits the Earth?

Read: NASA Blackout Warning December 2014 Total Darkness For Three Days?

Unfortunately, the sun’s activity is hard to predict. Solar scientists are working tirelessly on real data from sun-observing satellites to improve their models for prediction. In fact in a recent study from the Centre de Physique Théorique (CNRS/École polytechnique) and the Laboratoire Astrophysique, Interprétation — Modélisation (CNRS/CEA/Université Paris Diderot), scientists have identified a key phenomenon in the triggering of solar flares. Using satellite data and models, the scientists were able to monitor the evolution of the solar magnetic field in a region with eruptive behavior. Their calculations reveal the formation of a magnetic rope1 that emerges from the interior of the Sun and is associated with the appearance of a sunspot. They show that this structure plays an important role in triggering the flare. To read the full results of the study, a reference is provided below.

For the latest solar flare activity, NASA updates its page constantly. According to NASA, a large active region on the sun erupted with another X-class flare on Oct. 27, 2014 — its fourth since Oct. 24. The flare peaked at 10:47 a.m. EDT. X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength. An X2 is twice as intense as an X1, an X3 is three times as intense, etc.

Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however — when intense enough — they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel.

Journal Reference: Tahar Amari, Aurélien Canou, Jean-Jacques Aly. Characterizing and predicting the magnetic environment leading to solar eruptions. Nature, 2014; 514 (7523): 465 DOI: 10.1038/nature13815

Image Credit: NASA