Here we go again. The International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), a non-profit science research organization located in Florida, has issued a new Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Warning Notice (CWN) for a possible strong earthquake that could hit the Philippines in 2014. According to the new observation report released on July 7, 2014, the location of the earthquake will be south east of Samar in the Philippines along the Philippine Trench. IEVPC said that various CMWS signals have been detected indicating the possibility of a large seismic event, in the magnitude of 7.5 to 8.5, with a depth of 20 to 40 km.
This new report has replaced what IEVPC issued last year, stating that an 8.0 magnitude earthquake will hit the Philippines in 2014, with epicenter at the Molucca Sea. We covered that first IEVPC report through this post: 8.0 Magnitude Earthquake To Hit Philippines In 2014: Molucca Sea Epicenter.
Read the full remarks below from IEVPC, explaining why the epicenter has moved from Molucca Sea to South East of Samar:
This initial Test Program Observation replaces the previous Molucca Sea Prediction. A review of the Oct. 13, 2013 M7.2 Bohol earthquake indicates the predicted earthquake energy has been redirected north and north east from the Celebes Sea and away from the Molucca Sea per se. The analysis of the Bohol quake and recent signals tracked within the CMWS precursors indicates a new area requires study and has been included as the first IEVPC Test Program Observation for 2014.
We invite institutions and researchers to examine the area for this Observation as the IEVPC continues to monitor this area in a re-examination of its CMWS process. In an effort to improve the CMWS, the IEVPC has suspended its earthquake predictions as such, in favor of an extended Test Program of ‘Observations’ that are indicative of possible seismic activity. The IEVPC will update this Observation as new signals appear.
Previously, I emailed Mr. John L. Casey, the IEVPC Co-Founder and Chairman, and told him this, “While it is important to make people aware of coming disasters, this earthquake prediction has created quite a stir since we all know earthquakes can’t be precisely predicted.” I even asked him about the instruments they used to come up with the warnings.
He replied with just these two lines: “Sorry to hear you believe earthquakes cannot be predicted. I wish you the best in the future.”
Read also: Who Is John L. Casey
According to the IEVPC website, the organization has received the support of many scientists and researchers, some of whom are the world’s leaders in their innovative approaches to the prediction of earthquakes and related geophysical events.
Based on the comments from the previous warning report, most Filipinos called the report a big BS, since there is no way one can predict the occurrence of an earthquake. So “Can you really predict earthquakes?” This question has been answered by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The answer is in this previous post (bottom part).
If you have something to say to IEVPC about the new warning, say, you don’t agree of them issuing warnings, then tell them. You can reach them by:
Mail: IEVPC P.O. Box 607147, Orlando, FL, USA 32860
Is there a reason to panic with this new earthquake warning notice? Not at all. Take note that the first prediction of an epicenter at the Molucca Sea did not happen, and this new Samar epicenter may not happen either. What is very important is that the Philippine government should at least be prepared for its coming anytime. Geographically, the Philippine islands lie along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which causes the country to have frequent seismic activity.
In a GMA Network report, Renato Solidum Jr., Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) director even warned that a possible 7.2 earthquake is looming around the corner and “is a more than enough reason for the us to prepare for it as soon as we can.”
To all the Filipinos, be prepared always. Be safe.
Update on August 17, 2014: I asked Mr. John L. Casey about the updates of their observations in Southeast of Samar. This is what he said:
The new one year IEVPC test program does not include ‘predictions’ of earthquakes per se. We post “Observations” however to invite others to assist with the evaluation of our precursor signals. The Samar Observations is still current and we are monitoring the area routinely for additional signals.
We will be posting updates on this page as soon as we have one.
Update on August 24, 2014 from the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC):
Observation Type: Additional precursor signals received add to the previous Observation with a minimum M6.5 indication. This compares with the M 7.5 to 8.5. range from the original Observation from July 7, 2014.
Period of Concern: Reduced from the end of 2014 to “At any time.”
Location: East of Samar in the Philippines along the Philippine Trench
Depth: 20-40 km
Remarks: This UPDATE should be examined along with the original July 7, 2014 Observation. We invite institutions and researchers to examine the area for this Observation as the IEVPC continues to monitor this area in a re-examination of its CMWS process. In an effort to improve the CMWS, the IEVPC has suspended its earthquake predictions as such, in favor of an extended one year Test Program of ‘Observations’ that are indicative of possible seismic activity. The IEVPC will update this Observation as new signals appear