Should the Indonesia people be afraid of this earthquake prediction? The International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), a non-profit science research organization located in Florida, predicted that a strong 8.0 magnitude earthquake will hit Indonesia between end of 2013 to end of 2014. The organization issued in early 2013 a Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Warning Notice (CWN) for the Molucca Sea. This CWN specified a predicted major earthquake M8.0+ and associated tsunami that may strike the Philippines and northern Indonesia.
1. CGE ID #: 001-01-07-13
2. Effective Date and Time: Monday, January 7, 2013 9:00am EST
3. CGE Description: Earthquake with a magnitude of M8.0 + and possible tsunami
4. Warning Stage: Stage 3: A major earthquake and possible tsunami may strike between now and the end of December 2014. Immediate preparations should be taken.
5. Location: Molucca Sea; south of the Philippines.
Epicenter Coordinates: 4? 21’N, 126? 26′ E in the vicinity of the islands of Talaud and Sangihe.
6. Depth: 20-30 km
7. CGE Characteristics:
This predicted earthquake may cause widespread property damage and loss of life throughout the Molucca Sea and Celebes Sea regions where an estimated 2 million plus inhabitants live at or near threatened areas. Those nations at highest risk include those that border the Molucca Sea and are otherwise at risk from the expected tsunami. These are the entire north Indonesian islands, the Philippines, Borneo, Brunei, New Guinea, and west Pacific islands.
Increased volcanic activity is also expected and may produce added risks to residents of northern Indonesia and adjacent nations. Major eruptions producing dangerous situations for personnel on Molucca Sea islands are possible along with substantial atmospheric pollution and attendant aviation risks. All nations and personnel in these regions of the predicted epicenter should begin preparations for evacuation of coastal areas on a short notice basis.
Contingency planning on a national and regional basis needs to be taken to provide post event emergency services.
The IEVPC may provide other higher stage warnings for this predicted catastrophic geophysical event (CGE) if requested by host nations and after deployment of in-country earthquake monitoring teams.
8. Principal Researchers:
Dr. Dong Choi
Director of Research
Mr. John L. Casey
Update: I posted the response from the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) when I asked them about the earthquake prediction. You can read the full response here: 8.0 Magnitude Earthquake To Hit Philippines In 2014: Molucca Sea Epicenter