According to the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), a non-profit science research organization located in Florida, a possible 8.0 magnitude earthquake may hit the Philippines in 2014. The organization issued in early 2013 a Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Warning Notice (CWN) for the Molucca Sea. This CWN specified a predicted major earthquake M8.0+ and associated tsunami that may strike the Philippines and northern Indonesia between now and December 2014.
Here are some details of the prediction of 8.0 magnitude earthquake to hit Philippines in 2014:
Location: Molucca Sea; south of the Philippines.
Epicenter Coordinates: 4deg 21min N, 126deg 26min E in the vicinity of the islands of Talaud and Sangihe.
So how will the earthquake affect the Philippines and what should the people do?
This predicted earthquake may cause widespread property damage and loss of life throughout the Molucca Sea and Celebes Sea regions where an estimated 2 million plus inhabitants live at or near threatened areas. Those nations at highest risk include those that border the Molucca Sea and are otherwise at risk from the expected tsunami. These are the entire north Indonesian islands, the Philippines, Borneo, Brunei, New Guinea, and west Pacific islands.
Increased volcanic activity is also expected and may produce added risks to residents of northern Indonesia and adjacent nations. Major eruptions producing dangerous situations for personnel on Molucca Sea islands are possible along with substantial atmospheric pollution and attendant aviation risks.
All nations and personnel in these regions of the predicted epicenter should begin preparations for evacuation of coastal areas on a short notice basis. Contingency planning on a national and regional basis needs to be taken to provide post event emergency services.
The IEVPC may provide other higher stage warnings for this predicted catastrophic geophysical event (CGE) if requested by host nations and after deployment of in-country earthquake monitoring teams.
Note: The mission of the IEVPC is to provide prediction of catastrophic geophysical events (CGE) such as earthquakes, associated tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions.
Map: Molucca Sea Location
Update on December 5, 2013: I emailed the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) and inquired about their earthquake prediction. The organization is standing by their prediction. Below is their full response:
Good afternoon from the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC).
This email is being sent to the many who have expressed concern over the predicted M8.0+ earthquake and possible tsunami that has been predicted for the Molucca Sea area by then end of 2014. When originally detected, notice of the potential quake was sent to the Indonesian and Philippine governments for their action and or information. To date we have received no response back.
Since we are now entering the latter half of the forecast two year period of concern we will be renewing our attempts to have these governments take notice. Please feel free to contact them as you wish. Given the history of natural disasters in this area, we understand your desire to be kept informed. At present the only way we have to do so is to post our warnings (CWN) at the web site for the IEVPC at www.ievpc.org.
Unless we have been asked by these governments to bring in our personnel and equipment and set up a regular monitoring program using our proprietary technology, it may not be possible to provide much additional warning.
It is important to note that the IEVPC has a track record of successful predictions and that we have the shown that the ability to predict large earthquakes now exists to a relatively high degree regardless of past failures by other organizations to do so.
Should we be able to detect other signals associated with the predicted Molucca Sea earthquake, we will post such on the IEVPC web site or possibly include such updates in a message system we are considering for implementation.
Please feel free to continue to send us emails but we ask that you recognize that we receive many inquiries and may not be able to respond promptly if at all.
John L. Casey
Update 2: There are questions of whether scientists could predict earthquake or not. Here is what the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) had to say when asked “Can you predict earthquakes?”
“No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.”
Here is another question USGS answered: Can “Mega Quakes” really happen? USGS said that ‘Mega Quake’ cannot be ruled out.
“Theoretically yes, but realistically the answer is probably no. The magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault on which it occurs. That is, the longer the fault, the larger the earthquake. A fault is a break in the rocks that make up the Earth’s crust, along which rocks on either side have moved past each other. No fault long enough to generate a magnitude 10 earthquake is known to exist.
Now for the history lesson – the largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.5 on May 22, 1960 in Chile on a fault that is almost 1,000 miles long.
Scientists, however, can’t rule out a ‘Mega Quake’ because they’ve only been measuring earthquakes for 100 years, which is a blink of on eye in geologic time. I also want to point out that the magnitude scale on which earthquakes are measured is open-ended, meaning that science has not put a limit on how strong an earthquake could be.”
Update 3: Here is a post of who is behind the IEVPC. Introducing: Mr. John L. Casey. IEVPC Co-Founder and Chairman.
Update 4: The epicenter has now changed location. Strong Earthquake To Hit Samar Philippines In 2014: Epicenter Location Is East Of Visayas Region
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